PM Update: Severe storm or two possible into tonight with higher chances Sunday afternoon and evening

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Through Tonight: Mostly cloudy, very humid, with record warm mid-70s to near 80-degree low temperatures possible. A chance of showers and storms should focus on mainly evening and overnight hours. Weaker showers and storms could continue toward sunrise but be more spotty.

If a couple storms turn severe — with damaging wind gusts the most likely threat — it’s geographically more likely for points north of town and before midnight. Dampened spots may see some patchy fog near sunrise.

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Tomorrow (Sunday): The combination of heat and humidity likely creates heat index values around 105 degrees. Take it easy, seek shade and air conditioning if at all possible. After slight shower and storm chances in the morning, our attention turns toward likely, numerous storms developing after 2 p.m. Some could turn severe with damaging wind gusts over 57 mph, as a potent cold front approaches. Thermometer temperatures top out within a few degrees of 95.

Evening severe weather threats decrease with time but we may have to keep an eye on things until around midnight, especially for areas south and east of town. Pre-dawn breezes from the northwest slowly lower humidity, also helping temperatures cool to near 60 to mid-60s.

Weekend severe storm chances: Higher probability Sunday

A cold front arriving Sunday night delivers a nice start to our workweek. Ahead of it, we may see severe storms tonight and Sunday. Let’s chronologically, first review the “marginal” (1 out of 5) overall severe storm chance into tonight:

· What: Remnants of a broken squall line

· Timing: Mid-evening to around midnight

· Threats in order of likelihood: Damaging wind gusts over 57 mph; one or two flooding downpours; one or two weak, brief tornadoes

· Geography: North of town favored problem zone; squall line(s) of storms drifts from our northwest to southeast and should fade with time

Next, Sunday have a “slight” (2 out of 5) overall severe storm chance:

· What: Cold front-induced line or two of storms

· Timing: Midafternoon until at least late evening

· Threats in order of likelihood: Damaging wind gusts over 57 mph; one or two flooding downpours; one or two weak, brief tornadoes; a report or two of large hail

· Geography: Most of the region, perhaps slightly favored along and east of I-95